The Health of the Nation: A Wake-Up Call for Our Healthcare and Dietary Future
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Time to read 8 min
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Time to read 8 min
Over the past few years, there’s been no shortage of headlines about the strain facing our health service. Most of us have felt it in one way or another - longer waits to see a GP, policy debates dominating the news cycle, workforce shortages, and the rising cost of metabolic disease.
To put it plainly, the United Kingdom is currently facing a health crisis that costs the UK economy £268 billion a year from low productivity, early mortality, social care, welfare and the NHS. This is exactly why, 10 years ago, I set up the registered charity, Public Health Collaboration (PHC), whose vision is to help cultivate a society where everyone enjoys good metabolic health. We do this through various projects, but at the heart of it all is our passion to help people get healthy.
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To understand the scale of the challenge, we need to break it down. At the epicentre of our national health crisis are six major conditions that dominate resources. Collectively known as "The Big Six," these conditions are type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, obesity, cancer, dementia, and stroke. Combined, they cost the NHS approximately £35 billion every year. The impact of the big six is felt daily, with them being linked to 50% of all GP appointments and 70% of all inpatient bed days in hospitals. The breakdown of these costs shows a troubling picture:
● Type 2 Diabetes: £10 billion per year (affecting 3.9 million people).
● Cardiovascular Disease: £7 billion per year (6.8 million people).
● Obesity: £6 billion per year (17.4 million people).
● Cancer: £5 billion per year (3.0 million people).
● Dementia: £4 billion per year (944,000 people).
● Stroke: £3 billion per year (1.3 million people).
For years, the public has been directed toward the Eatwell Guide as the gold standard for healthy eating. This guide suggests a diet high in starchy carbohydrates like cereals, potatoes, bread, and pasta. However, a closer look at the authors of the 2016 Eatwell Guide reveals a concerning level of industry influence.
Many of the contributors represented organisations whose members include some of the world’s largest producers of processed foods and sugary drinks. A few examples include:
● Institute of Grocery Distribution, whose members include Kelloggs, Mars, and PepsiCo.
● British Nutrition Foundation, representing companies like British Sugar, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, and Nestlé.
● Food & Drink Federation, whose membership includes Cadbury, Haribo, and United Biscuits.
When the very guidelines designed to keep the nation healthy are influenced by companies that profit from processed goods, we must ask - is this advice truly in the best interest of the public's metabolic health?
The National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2019 to 2023) provides a snapshot of the current British diet. On average, our intake consists of 45% carbohydrates, 33% fat and 17% protein. While many people believe the public is simply overeating, the survey shows average daily intakes are 1,883 kcals for men and 1,491 kcals for women. However, it must be said that food surveys often under-report by about 25%. But even when taking that into account, it still leads to calorie intakes being below the recommended levels.
More concerning is our consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF). These are foods that have undergone significant industrial processing and often contain additives, preservatives, and high levels of refined sugars. The data is concerning:
● 57% of total energy intake in UK adults comes from UPFs.
● 75% of total energy intake in UK children comes from UPFs.
● 83% of total energy intake in UK adolescents comes from UPFs.
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The traditional "calories in, calories out" model of weight management is increasingly being challenged by the scientific literature. To truly understand this, I decided to take things into my own hands. I conducted an experiment on myself that was published in 2021 in the peer-reviewed journal, Current Opinion in Endocrinology, Diabetes and Obesity. My self-experiment compared the effects of overfeeding 5,800 calories a day using three different dietary profiles over 21 days with 3-months reset in between.
Low Carb Real Food: After taking into account exercise, fibre and protein, I ended up in a 47,000 calorie surplus. Foods consumed: Animal protein, oily fish, healthy fats, fresh vegetables, nuts and seeds. The theoretical weight gain should have been 6.1kg, but the actual weight gain was only 1.3kg. Remarkably, I lost 3cm from my waistline.
Low Fat, UPF-Based Food: In this experiment, I managed to end in the same 47,000 calorie surplus. Foods consumed: Ultraprocessed breads, cereals and cakes, low-fat yoghurts and desserts, high-sugar fizzy drinks, mass-market processed ready meals. Again, the theoretical weight gain should have been 6.1kg. However, it actually resulted in a weight gain of 7.1kg as well as a massive 9.25cm increase in my waist.
Very Low Fat Real Food Vegan: Due to the amount of fibre I was consuming during this experiment, I only managed to get my surplus calories to 40,000. Foods consumed: oats, plant milks, tofu, beans, rice, fruits and vegetables. This meant the calorie formula predicted a weight gain of 5.2kg. In reality, I put on 4.7kg and a 7.75cm increase in my waist.
My results suggest that the quality and composition of different foods trigger different metabolic responses, with certain foods leading to more weight gain than others despite a similar total of calories consumed. I.e. While the low-carb real food diet led to minimal weight gain and a leaner waist, the low-fat fake food diet led to significant fat storage.
With that in mind, let’s circle back to the latest National Diet and Nutrition Survey. This tells us we are eating the correct amount of calories, but at the same time, the majority of calories are coming from UPF. This would suggest that UPF is uniquely fattening and a root cause of the nation’s health crisis.
To fix the health of the nation, we at the Public Health Collaboration have identified three major ambitions for the near future:
Help reverse the type 2 diabetes and prediabetes epidemics.
Get ultraprocessed food addiction recognised as an official medical diagnosis.
Undo the childhood obesity crisis.
To achieve these ambitions, we spearhead several projects designed to provide the public with the tools they need for real lasting change. And we put our money where our mouth is by bringing in Universities to evaluate their effectiveness. Two recent examples include:
The Lifestyle Club: In conjunction with the University of Surrey, the TLC study was published in BMJ Nutrition. The findings showed measurable reductions in blood glucose and weight, which puts them on the road to remission from type 2 diabetes.
Liberate: In conjunction with the University of Coventry, the Liberate study was published in Frontiers in Psychiatry. This study demonstrates that we help people reduce their UPF addiction symptoms while also improving their mental wellbeing.
Scaled nationally, programmes like this could potentially save the NHS and the UK economy billions of pounds every year. The question now is - will policymakers be prepared to prioritise metabolic health at the scale the evidence demands?
While national policy and systemic reform are essential, meaningful change also happens at the ground level. The food environments we create in our own homes, workplaces and communities matter. Choosing minimally processed, nutrient-dense foods and reducing reliance on industrial formulations may sound simple, but at scale, these choices influence metabolic health profoundly. It’s encouraging to see brands like Hunter & Gather prioritising real-food ingredients and challenging the dominance of ultra-processed options in everyday products. Change does not only happen in Parliament. It happens in kitchens and the knowledge we pass on.
For those looking to explore these ideas further, visit Public Health Collaboration online, or join us at our 10-year anniversary conference, Nourish to Flourish, in London on 16th and 17th May, you can buy in-person and livestream tickets with a 10% discount using the code HG10 during checkout - www.PHCukconference.org
The UK’s health crisis is not simply about rising costs or overstretched services — it is fundamentally about metabolic health. With billions spent annually on preventable chronic disease, the evidence increasingly points toward diet quality as a major lever for change.
While policy reform and updated national guidance are essential, change does not begin and end in Westminster. It begins in everyday choices, the foods we buy, cook and share. Shifting away from ultra-processed formulations and toward real, nutrient-dense ingredients has the potential to reshape public health from the ground up.
Systemic reform may take time, but metabolic change can start today, in our kitchens, our communities and the standards we demand from the food system.
“The Big Six” refers to type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, obesity, cancer, dementia and stroke. Together, they cost the NHS around £35 billion per year and account for 50% of GP appointments and 70% of hospital inpatient bed days.
Ultra-processed foods are industrial formulations often high in refined sugars, additives and preservatives. In the UK, 57% of adult energy intake, and up to 83% in adolescents, comes from UPFs. Emerging research suggests these foods may drive metabolic dysfunction beyond what calorie count alone would predict.
While calorie balance remains relevant, growing evidence suggests that food quality and composition influence hormonal and metabolic responses. Different dietary patterns, even at the same calorie surplus, may result in significantly different effects on body fat, waist circumference and metabolic markers.
Key strategies include reversing type 2 diabetes and prediabetes, addressing ultra-processed food dependency, tackling childhood obesity, and shifting dietary guidance toward minimally processed, nutrient-dense foods. Community-level change, in homes, schools and workplaces, is as important as national policy reform.
Start by prioritising whole, real foods: quality proteins, healthy fats, vegetables, nuts and seeds. Reducing reliance on ultra-processed products and focusing on nutrient density over calorie counting may support better metabolic outcomes over time.